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2017-2018 KenPom Rankings Thread


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18 minutes ago, Swan88 said:

And how does a team come in at #35 with six losses in their last 11 games, including four blow-out losses by 14, 20, 22 and 23 point margins?

The rating systems are a joke that is why!

 

How is Maryland where they are?  Any person that has been paying attention to basketball knows that Nebraska is a better team, yet somehow Maryland is ranked 30 spots ahead of us in these dumb ass computer rankings!

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Is there anyone that has the ability to adjust the kenpom ratings and remove all team wins with a ranking of 250+

 

I honestly feel that we would be ranked between 30-40 without Marist, Delaware St., Stetson and Eastern Illinois on our resume.  They are killing our RPI and other computer rankings.  Committee should ignore any win over 250+ and use them in a resume "ONLY" if they are loss for any team battling for a tournament spot. 

 

They should not be allowed to hurt our schedule.  If you win the game, at the end of the year if the team is ranked outside of the top 250 they are treated as a DII game and are not allowed to affect your RPI and other computer rankings.  It is not our fault they ended up sucking worse than the other sucky teams ranked 100-250.  There is just to much attached to those win in the overall resume, and in the grand scheme of things they are irrelevant.  Meaning who cares that we beat Marist at 312 or UC Irvine at 144.  We are going to beat either of those teams, one hurts us and the other doesn't.

Edited by big red22
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23 minutes ago, big red22 said:

I honestly feel that we would be ranked between 30-40 without Marist, Delaware St., Stetson and Eastern Illinois on our resume.  They are killing our RPI and other computer rankings.  

 

Kenpom is a predictive system, not a rankings system. It's main function is to tell you if you match up two teams, who will win.

It doesn't care if you win or lose so much as how much you win or lose by.  For the RPI whether or not you beat Marist by 1 or 100 doesn't matter. It does for KenPom. 

 

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7 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

Kenpom is a predictive system, not a rankings system. It's main function is to tell you if you match up two teams, who will win.

It doesn't care if you win or lose so much as how much you win or lose by.  For the RPI whether or not you beat Marist by 1 or 100 doesn't matter. It does for KenPom. 

 

Guessing our Kenpom would be alit better had we not struggled with several of those bottom feeders 

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2 hours ago, Swan88 said:

And how does a team come in at #35 with six losses in their last 11 games, including four blow-out losses by 14, 20, 22 and 23 point margins?

 

The rankings are by adjusted efficiency margin....taking an adjusted offensive number and subtracting an adjusted defensive margin.

https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/

 

The ratings get "stickier" as the season goes along so it's harder to move up or down as the season progresses unless something dramatic happens.

I think you could probably argue, and I know we have, that the Big East is slightly overrated. Thus being beat down by Villanova on the road or losing a close game at Xavier doesn't move the needle much. Losing at home to Marquette and getting killed on the road at Butler did. Since losing Krumple they've gone from 18th to 35th and I expect them to trend downward as losses vs Villanova and at Marquette look likely. They probably make the tourney but like last year they're backing in and probably get bounced in the first round.

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4 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

The rankings are by adjusted efficiency margin....taking an adjusted offensive number and subtracting an adjusted defensive margin.

https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-methodology-update/

 

The ratings get "stickier" as the season goes along so it's harder to move up or down as the season progresses unless something dramatic happens.

I think you could probably argue, and I know we have, that the Big East is slightly overrated. Thus being beat down by Villanova on the road or losing a close game at Xavier doesn't move the needle much. Losing at home to Marquette and getting killed on the road at Butler did. Since losing Krumple they've gone from 18th to 35th and I expect them to trend downward as losses vs Villanova and at Marquette look likely. They probably make the tourney but like last year they're backing in and probably get bounced in the first round.

 

Probably one of the main reasons we didn't move a whole lot for losing to Illinois.

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The Idea, presumably, is to provide an over-all picture of each team.  One or two outlier results every now and then for any team (every team has them) will be balanced out over time.  However, it seems that a strong bias exits in favor of early season results.  In years past, selection committees said they focused on late-season trends over early-season results.  Explanation this year appear to be the opposite.

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Not a lot of movement (up to #54) - and not much was expected really win or lose so I thought I'd just put the whole season up here for now.  Look at all that green.  Looks good!

 

Sat Nov 11 97 258 Eastern Illinois W, 72-68 72   Home 1-0    
Mon Nov 13 102 186 North Texas W, 86-67 73   Home 2-0    
Thu Nov 16 100 76 St. John's L, 79-56 72   Away 2-1   a.gif
Sun Nov 19 112 252 North Dakota W, 92-70 78   Home 3-1    
Thu Nov 23 112 102 UCF L, 68-59 68   Semi-Away 3-2   b.gif
Fri Nov 24 114 317 Marist W, 84-59 62   Neutral 4-2    
Sun Nov 26 104 198 Long Beach St. W, 85-80 74   Neutral 5-2    
Wed Nov 29 111 83 Boston College W, 71-62 64   Home 6-2    
Sun Dec 3 104 5 Michigan St. L, 86-57 67   Away 6-3 0-1 a.gif
Tue Dec 5 105 108 Minnesota W, 78-68 76   Home 7-3 1-1  
Sat Dec 9 91 28 Creighton L, 75-65 70   Away 7-4   a.gif
Sat Dec 16 92 9 Kansas L, 73-72 69   Home 7-5   a.gif
Wed Dec 20 86 173 UTSA W, 104-94 74   Home 8-5    
Fri Dec 22 85 350 Delaware St. W, 85-68 70   Home 9-5    
Fri Dec 29 94 310 Stetson W, 71-62 76   Home 10-5    
Tue Jan 2 97 90 Northwestern W, 70-55 62   Away 11-5 2-1 b.gif
Sat Jan 6 81 4 Purdue L, 74-62 72   Away 11-6 2-2 a.gif
Tue Jan 9 81 80 Wisconsin W, 63-59 66   Home 12-6 3-2  
Fri Jan 12 81 32 Penn St. L, 76-74 76 OT Away 12-7 3-3 a.gif
Mon Jan 15 81 101 Illinois W, 64-63 66   Home 13-7 4-3  
Thu Jan 18 85 16 Michigan W, 72-52 59   Home 14-7 5-3 a.gif
Mon Jan 22 67 15 Ohio St. L, 64-59 61   Away 14-8 5-4 a.gif
Wed Jan 24 65 161 Rutgers W, 60-54 65   Away 15-8 6-4  
Sat Jan 27 63 100 Iowa W, 98-84 70   Home 16-8 7-4  
Mon Jan 29 61 80 Wisconsin W, 74-63 70   Away 17-8 8-4 a.gif
Tue Feb 6 61 108 Minnesota W, 91-85 69   Away 18-8 9-4 b.gif
Sat Feb 10 56 161 Rutgers W, 67-55 62   Home 19-8 10-4  
Tue Feb 13 52 46 Maryland W, 70-66 64   Home 20-8 11-4 b.gif
Sun Feb 18 53 101 Illinois L, 72-66 65   Away 20-9 11-5 b.gif
Tue Feb 20 56 73 Indiana W, 66-57 65   Home 21-9 12-5  
Sun Feb 25 59 32 Penn St. W, 76-64 70   Home 22-9 13-5 b.gif
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2 minutes ago, Wolv77 said:

If we *really* beat what was the supposedly 32nd ranked team tonight, shouldn't we move up a bit? Nope, because these computer models are interesting but unreliable. Why anyone puts stock in these I have no idea. 

 

Yep.  My 2 cents, but there is a reason they have a committee and that gives me big hope.  If the committee really wants the best 32 teams in the nation, we are in.  If it’s computer based... I’m worried.  The reason I think we are in win/lose against MU is the fact that there’s a committee.  Actual humans that can say... this team is one of the best teams this year.

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6 hours ago, TimSmiles said:

if the computer models tell us who the best teams are then why even have an ncaa tournament?

 

i'm sure the computer models projected south carolina to make the final four last year.

 

 

Absolutely. But if South Carolina wasn't selected into the tournament the world would never have known how good they were. Step 1 happens on Friday thru Sunday. Step 2 happens on Selection Sunday.

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Which loss hurts us more?  @Illinois or @Penn State?  Here is today's KenPom update:

 

 


 


KenPom rankings as of 2-26-18
=========================

 

B1G (13-5):
4. Purdue (17) - L
5. Michigan State (10) - L
15. Ohio State (78) - L
16. Michigan (32) - W
32. Penn State (40) - L, W
46. Maryland (41) - W
54. Nebraska (98)
73. Indiana (65) - W

80. Wisconsin (31) - W, W
90. Northwestern (18) - W

100. Iowa (54) - W
101. Illinois (104) - W, L
108. Minnesota (36) - W, W
161. Rutgers (125) - W, W

 


Non-Conference (9-4):
258. Eastern Illinois - W
186. North Texas - W

 

---Gavitt Tip-Off---
76. @St. John's - L

252. North Dakota - W

 

---Advocare Invitational---
102. UCF - L
317. Marist - W
198. Long Beach State - W

 

---B1G/ACC Challenge--- 
83. Boston College - W

 

28. @Creighton - L

 

---Shelter Insurance Showcase---
9. Kansas - L

 

173. UTSA - W
350. Delaware State - W
310. Stetson - W

 

 

**Parenthesis after the Big Ten team names indicates the season starting KenPom ranking.

**Blue indicates NIT team from last year, Red is NCAA Tourney

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