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Defending the 3 pointer


Blindcheck

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I have been thinking about three point defense and started looking at some article out there on three point defense.  

 

Article

 

This article is about the NBA and really talks about the individual, but reading what I could find from Seth Partnow...he can't find any correlation that relates to how a defense defends the three pointer...and the success of the three point attempts.

 

His theory as I understand it...is that Three point shots come in offenses when players feel they have space to have the confidence to take the shot....and regardless of how close the nearest defender is..the outcome does is not correlated with the closeness of the defender...basically his theory is that defensive three point % success is more luck than defensive pressure.

 

His other theory as I understand it...is that true three point defense is really the prevention of attempts...if you are close enough that a player is not comfortable to shoot it...then you will prevent the Threes..but once they get the shot off, the outcome is irrelevant to position of the nearest defender.

 

He uses numbers albeit from the NBA to defend his theories...not sure if I subscribe to his theory, but sometimes I do think that guys just make shots against us...that they don't make against other squads...how many times does it seem like we hear, before tonight he only had 3 three pointers and he has matched that tonight.

 

Just some thoughts to spur discussion about a statistical weakness of the Huskers.....Is it something that can be corrected or is it an aberation and will revert back to the mean.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Blindcheck said:

but sometimes I do think that guys just make shots against us...that they don't make against other squads...how many times does it seem like we hear, before tonight he only had 3 three pointers and he has matched that tonight.

 

Sure seems that way!  Also the correlated "he's only made X (insert percentage < 25 here) of his 3's this year, but is Y for Z (insert makes and attempts for > 40% here) tonight" for multiple players from the opposing team.

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2 hours ago, NUtball said:

Sure seems that way!  Also the correlated "he's only made X (insert percentage < 25 here) of his 3's this year, but is Y for Z (insert makes and attempts for > 40% here) tonight" for multiple players from the opposing team.

It's just that it happens way too often. Maybe it's some sort of proximity bias because I watch so much more of NU than I do of other team.

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3 hours ago, colhusker said:

I want to see that stats he used to come up with his correlation (sorry science geek in me).  I just have a hard time believing a guy standing wide open that can step into his shot makes just as many as a guy who has someone in his face or closing out quickly.

I would assume he is saying, the fewer 3's you allow the other team, the less likely they are to make a bunch of 3's.  If you have a guy in his face, he is not going to get the shot off.  I look at the Rutgers game as one example.  They shot 50% against us from 3, but they only made 3, and scored 65 points.  Purdue, OTOH, shot 58.3%, and made 14 3's, scoring 80 points.

 

I do think it is human nature to get stunned if you see someone coming at you.  Thus, the need to close out with your hands up.  I think the normal reaction is to flinch a little if you see something coming at you.  If you keep your hands down, the shooter will see less of you, and in turn become less startled.  Makes it easier to make the shot. 

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4 minutes ago, brfrad said:

 

I do think it is human nature to get stunned if you see someone coming at you.  Thus, the need to close out with your hands up.  I think the normal reaction is to flinch a little if you see something coming at you.  If you keep your hands down, the shooter will see less of you, and in turn become less startled.  Makes it easier to make the shot. 

Close out hands high to get in the line of sight between the shooter and the rim. If you inhibit the ability to focus on the rim, it disrupts the shot.

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The way I understand this article is that once a player decides that he is "open" enough to take a shot, the distance of the closest player doesn't significantly affect the outcome of his shot.

 

This should be expected, especially out of NBA players. A distraction shouldn't change the likelihood of a successful outcome, whether it's a fan on the sideline, a player 20 feet away, or a player 5 feet away. After the decision is to shoot is made the position of the defender doesn't matter and a coin flip will be as accurate a predictor of outcome as anything. The part of the article about the negative correlation proves the point that some of you are making: a truly contested shot is harder to make than an uncontested shot (e.g., a forced shot at the end of the shot clock).

 

I think the ultimate point of the article is that in the NBA the goal is to make a player choose not to shoot the three point shot (in the article they want to measure this as a stat called 3 point avoidance). As several have mentioned, translation to the college game may not be straight forward, but I would guess that most D1 college basketball players have practiced enough and played in enough games that distractions don't make a difference.

 

The extension of this conversation would then be to determine the outcome of the possession after a defender successfully makes a shooter defer from taking a shot. A defender selling out and jumping as high as possible with two hands in the air may make a shooter pass up a three point shot but obviously isn't a good overall strategy if the shooter dribbles around the defender for a layup.

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