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B1G Tourney Projections

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Just going off the excellent mred predictor and leaving all the favorites as is for non-NU games.

 

Rest of the way:

 

4-0: #5 seed vs OSU/Ill winner

3-1: (Loss vs MSU) #6 seed vs Rutg/PSU winner

       (Loss vs Ill) #6 seed vs Rutg/Ill winner

       (Loss vs Minn) #6 seed vs Rutg/PSU winner

       (Loss vs Mich) #7 seed vs Iowa

2-2: (Way too many combinations to type here)

       Most likely seed: #8

       (Most likely scenario, losses to MSU & Minn) #8 seed vs Indiana

1-3: (Win vs MSU) #10 seed vs MSU

      (Win vs Ill) #9 seed vs Indiana

      (Win vs Minn) #10 seed vs Mich

      (Win vs Mich) #10 seed vs Mich

0-4: #12 seed vs OSU / winner to play MSU

 

Of course, these seeds almost certainly will not be accurate as there will be multiple upsets in non-NU games, affecting the records/seeds of the teams around NU. But that's quite a range of options remaining, anywhere from #5 to #12.

 

It looks pretty solid that as long as we don't go 0-4, we'll avoid the play-in day.

 

RPI Forecast has us going 1-3 rest of the way with win vs Illinois; RealTime RPI says 2-2 rest of the way, losing the 2 road games - both of those scenarios will put us the 8/9 game vs Indiana according to the predictor. Would just be a matter of who wears white jerseys and who wears red jerseys. That's the 11 am game on Thursday ... just in case you want to start practicing your sick day routine for that day. 11 am is a good time for a long lunch too.

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I decided to go total homer and came up with this:

 

Big 10 Standings

1. Purdue (15 - 3) Defeated Maryland based on head-to-head record.
2. Maryland (15 - 3) Lost to Purdue based on head-to-head record.
3. Wisconsin (14 - 4)
4. Northwestern (12 - 6)
5. Nebraska (10 - 8)
6. Michigan (9 - 9) Defeated Michigan State based on record against #3 teams.
7. Michigan State (9 - 9) Lost to Michigan based on record against #3 teams.
8. Iowa (8 - 10)
9. Penn State (7 - 11) Defeated Minnesota based on head-to-head record.
10. Minnesota (7 - 11) Lost to Penn State based on head-to-head record.
11. Indiana (6 - 12) Defeated Illinois and Ohio State based on round-robin record.
12. Illinois (6 - 12) Defeated Ohio State and lost to Indiana based on round-robin record.
13. Ohio State (6 - 12) Lost to Indiana and Illinois based on round-robin record.
14. Rutgers (2 - 16)

big10m.xml&image=bracket.png 
 

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4 minutes ago, kleitus said:

I want northwestern.  Call me sick and twisted all you want.

 

I want to punch them in the mouth again and see if they get up.  I'm willing to face purdue in the semis.

 

We've never beaten Michigan since joining the conference if you want to go all in for our first round matchup

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Lol... :)

 

I'm not really putting expectations out there.  I HOPE we can make a 3-1 run the last four.  I hope better even but hey...

 

I want good things like all of us... :)

 

Might as well dream high

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10 minutes ago, hhcdimes said:

 

We've never beaten Michigan since joining the conference if you want to go all in for our first round matchup

 

I've been keeping a sort of running total in my head of who (and where) we have left to beat in the B1G since joining.  Of the 28 team/location combos in the B1G we have won 23.  As far as I can tell here's what we have done and what we have left to do.

 

Teams and locations we have yet to win:

Maryland - H

Michigan - A, H

Minnesota - A

Purdue - A

 

We could still potentially cross two more off this list this year.

 

Here are the ones we've crossed off the list so far this year:

Maryland - A

Ohio State - A


FWIW, here's who we've beaten in the BTT:

Purdue

Rutgers

Wisconsin

 

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2 minutes ago, 49r said:

 

I've been keeping a sort of running total in my head of who (and where) we have left to beat in the B1G since joining.  Of the 28 team/location combos in the B1G we have won 23.  As far as I can tell here's what we have done and what we have left to do.

 

Teams and locations we have yet to win:

Maryland - H

Michigan - A, H

Minnesota - A

Purdue - A

 

We could still potentially cross two more off this list this year.

 

Here are the ones we've crossed off the list so far this year:

Maryland - A

Ohio State - A


FWIW, here's who we've beaten in the BTT:

Purdue

Rutgers

Wisconsin

 

Something is off here. You say 28 possible home/away combos but there's only 26 because we don't play ourselves on the road or at home. Right? 13 other teams?

 

But then you do have 5 wins left to get listed. So is the 5 off or is it really that we've won 21 of 26?

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1 hour ago, ajb5856 said:

Something is off here. You say 28 possible home/away combos but there's only 26 because we don't play ourselves on the road or at home. Right? 13 other teams?

 

But then you do have 5 wins left to get listed. So is the 5 off or is it really that we've won 21 of 26?

 

Ah, crap.  You're right. We've won 21 out of 26 combos.  +1 to you.

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Don't like that the Purdue matchup is showing up on so many scenarios.  That is the only team I absolutely do not want to face.  Personally would love to see Northwestern at some point because of the degree of difficulty in beating a team three times.

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3 hours ago, NeeandMe said:

Don't like that the Purdue matchup is showing up on so many scenarios.  That is the only team I absolutely do not want to face.  Personally would love to see Northwestern at some point because of the degree of difficulty in beating a team three times.

That's only true if the teams are very very close in ability or if injuries are involved. If a team wins two that usually means they are the better team and they win the third as well. In this case both of my caveats are true and I would like our chances. 

Edited by Dean Smith

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Crazy to think that, when healthy, we are one of the better teams in the Big Ten.

 

It's weird looking through the standings and thinking wow there's not a single team in the conference we couldn't beat regardless of location. 

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1 hour ago, khoock said:

Crazy to think that, when healthy, we are one of the better teams in the Big Ten.

 

It's weird looking through the standings and thinking wow there's not a single team in the conference we couldn't beat regardless of location. 

 

Honestly... is this not what we all want!?  Yes... the record isn't where we want it to be, but the talent/level of play is.  Have we ever had a team that you 100 percent believed could beat anyone on any given night in the Big 10?  

 

Thats why I think it is crazy that we are even talking about new coaches.  Not one coach we have had in the last 15 years has been able to compete top to bottom in the conference.  We are three points away from being 15-12 (9-5) right now.  THREE POINTS!

 

It isn't like we are doing this with a senior loaded team who has been together for 4 years either.  That team is still 2 years out.  No one ever said the ride was going to be smooth.  But if you jump ship at every bump in the road, the bumpy road is only going to get longer.

 

We can compete... with anyone in our conference.  Hell... we can compete with nearly every team out there!  The close loss to UCLA, and one bad half vs. KU show that.  As Miles said on his radio show... he is doing this thing to be long term and make Nebraska relevant.  We played fricking KU, UCLA, Clemson, Dayton, VA Tech, and Creighton prior to conference!

 

Enjoy the ride.  Enjoy the struggles.  But remember the best is yet to come.  The core is there.  They are Freshman and Sophomores.  We have a legit 1-5 with more studs on the way.  

Edited by hskr4life

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1 hour ago, khoock said:

Crazy to think that, when healthy, we are one of the better teams in the Big Ten.

 

It's weird looking through the standings and thinking wow there's not a single team in the conference we couldn't beat regardless of location. 

That's what makes us Nebraska Basketball fans. It's a rare combination of cockeyed optimism & dementia that gives us our "glass half full" mentality & keeps people away from us on the city bus.

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Big 10 Standings

1. Wisconsin (15 - 3) 
2. Purdue (14 - 4) Defeated Maryland based on head-to-head record.
3. Maryland (14 - 4) Lost to Purdue based on head-to-head record.
4. Northwestern (11 - 7) 
5. Michigan State (10 - 8) Defeated Michigan and Minnesota based on round-robin record.
6. Michigan (10 - 8) With Minnesota, lost to Michigan State based on round-robin record. Defeated Minnesota based on record against #1 teams.
7. Minnesota (10 - 8) With Michigan, lost to Michigan State based on round-robin record. Lost to Michigan based on record against #1 teams.
8. Indiana (8 - 10) 
9. Nebraska (7 - 11) With Iowa, defeated Penn State based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa based on record against #2 teams.
10. Iowa (7 - 11) With Nebraska, defeated Penn State based on round-robin record. Lost to Nebraska based on record against #2 teams.
11. Penn State (7 - 11) Lost to Iowa and Nebraska based on round-robin record.
12. Illinois (6 - 12) 
13. Ohio State (5 - 13) 
14. Rutgers (2 - 16) 

big10m.xml&image=bracket.png

I got this today.  This would mean everything working out the way it should except Purdue would lose @Michigan.  This is a pretty nice setup for us I would say! 

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How about this possible scenario...We beat MSU, Illinois and Michigan while losing to Minnie. Then, of course, all other games go by form!

 

Big 10 Standings

1. Purdue (15 - 3) Defeated Wisconsin based on head-to-head record.
2. Wisconsin (15 - 3) Lost to Purdue based on head-to-head record.
3. Maryland (14 - 4)
4. Northwestern (11 - 7)
5. Minnesota (10 - 8)
6. Nebraska (9 - 9) Defeated Michigan State based on record against #1 teams.
7. Michigan State (9 - 9) Lost to Nebraska based on record against #1 teams.
8. Michigan (8 - 10) Defeated Indiana based on head-to-head record.
9. Indiana (8 - 10) Lost to Michigan based on head-to-head record.
10. Iowa (7 - 11) Defeated Penn State based on head-to-head record.
11. Penn State (7 - 11) Lost to Iowa based on head-to-head record.
12. Illinois (6 - 12)
13. Ohio State (5 - 13)
14. Rutgers (2 - 16)

 

rr23unoO1vEAAAAASUVORK5CYIIA

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I am typically fascinated by the scenario generator.  This year it seems like a waste of my time as there are so many close games, that there are endless realistic combinations at this point.  I agree with others that Purdue is probably who I least desire to play.  I would like to be a 7 seed and Playing Iowa or Penn St., or an 8 seed playing one of those two clubs, and Purdue not landing on the 1 line.  That would be the best case I believe.  Especially if Mich St Purdue Maryland are all on the other side.  If NW is on the 4 line we want a part of the 8-9 game instead of a 7-10 game IMO. 

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