B1G Tourney Projections

[uneblinstu]

Dare to dream, folks. Dare to dream.

 

Big 10 Standings

1. Purdue (15 - 3) Defeated Wisconsin based on head-to-head record.
2. Wisconsin (15 - 3) Lost to Purdue based on head-to-head record.
3. Maryland (14 - 4)
4. Nebraska (10 - 8)
5. Michigan State (9 - 9) Defeated Michigan, Minnesota, and Northwestern based on round-robin record.
6. Michigan (9 - 9) With Minnesota, defeated Northwestern and lost to Michigan State based on round-robin record. Defeated Minnesota based on record against #4 teams.
7. Minnesota (9 - 9) With Michigan, defeated Northwestern and lost to Michigan State based on round-robin record. Lost to Michigan based on record against #4 teams.
8. Northwestern (9 - 9) Lost to Michigan State, Michigan, and Minnesota based on round-robin record.
9. Indiana (8 - 10)
10. Penn State (7 - 11) Defeated Illinois and Iowa based on round-robin record.
11. Illinois (7 - 11) Defeated Iowa and lost to Penn State based on round-robin record.
12. Iowa (7 - 11) Lost to Penn State and Illinois based on round-robin record.
13. Ohio State (5 - 13)
14. Rutgers (2 - 16)


If you want to get Purdue to get off the #1 line, cheer for Penn St. or Indiana when they play them.
 

Edited February 22, 2017 by uneblinstu

[royalfan]

The more I think about it, the more I don't know that I care very much who would be the one seed if we are in the 8-9 game.  Although, I hope we keep winning, the 8-9 spot is a good landing spot as you only deal with one of the big 3.  Especially if NW could get to the 4 line.  Purdue seems like a tough match up on the surface, but we are a tough matchup for them as well.  They are not a good shot blocking team(no numbers to back this up, just eyes) and they definitely struggle to keep guys in front of them at times.  I think we can penetrate them, unless they play zone more than usual.  Not a very athletic team.  If we can come up with a defensive plan to give them some uncomfortable trips, we can beat them again.  Possibly easier than beating Maryland with a lot of fan support.  Vegas would slightly have Purdue as the largest favorite against us, but not a significant difference. 

[hhcmatt]

9 minutes ago, royalfan said:

They are not a good shot blocking team(no numbers to back this up, just eyes) 

 

The numbers back that up.

[49r]

With Iowa winning last night, and our Massey predictions giving us only one more win the rest of the way we stayed at the #9 seed, facing Iowa instead of Indiana.  We appear locked in most likely to that 9 seed.  Basically what it's coming down to is we need to go 4-0 or 0-4 (or some other combination of crazy crap happening) to get out of that #8 - #9 game.  Here is the default bracket:

 

http://bball.notnothing.net/b10bracket.php

 

Edited February 22, 2017 by 49r

[throwback]

Back to the mred predictor and leaving all the favorites as is for non-NU games.

 

Rest of the way:

 

3-0: #7 seed vs Indiana

2-1:  (Loss vs Ill) #8 seed vs Iowa

       (Loss vs Minn) #8 seed vs Mich

       (Loss vs Mich) #8 seed vs Iowa

1-2: (Win vs Ill) #9 seed vs Iowa

      (Win vs Minn) #10 seed vs Mich

      (Win vs Mich) #10 seed vs Illinois

0-3: #12 seed vs OSU / winner to play MSU

 

Still pretty much in the same boat as before Thursday's loss - win one more game and avoid play-in day. Win Sunday, and we look pretty solid to be no lower than #9 seed.

 

So if home court holds in our next two games, by defeating Michigan in the final game we could get the reward of ... playing Michigan again in the opening round. Yay.

 

Of course, there will be upsets in other games, so these seeds aren't locked in.

 

 

Playing around with it, if everything breaks right, the highest I could get us is to #6 - tough to go much higher with losing tiebreakers to MSU & NW.

Edited February 24, 2017 by throwback

[AuroranHusker]

Get to 8-10 in the league. See what happens in D.C. You never know, catch lightning in a bottle. Could be really great... NU played three games last season in the B1G tourney! GBR

[uneblinstu]

To get Purdue off the 1 line, they need to lose twice. They've got roadies at Michigan and Northwestern.

 

Obviously, the ideal scenario would be to get win out and get the #7 seed. There are plausible scenarios where NU can go 3-0 the rest of the way and still finish on the 8 line. I think I found one where they can go 2-1 and be the 7, too. But I've ran several now and didn't write them down, so I could be getting them mixed up.

 

I haven't found a way to move us above the 7, so I think that's the ceiling.

Edited February 24, 2017 by uneblinstu

[royalfan]

Not so sure I agree that 7 would serve us better.  Have to potentially deal with 2 of the best three teams instead of one if we are 8 or 9.  Also don't think Purdue can keep our guards in front of them.  We got a lot of easy shots against them.  I would least hope to play them but might be easier than going through multiple great teams one of which near home and still most likely getting Purdue in finals anyway.  Pry don't matter either way.  Just don't really want Indiana in first round or Michigan either.