Predicting Player Stats

[49r]

23 minutes ago, led1 said:

Pomeroy's detail looks like he is only projecting 10 wins, not 12.

 

The second and third games in Anaheim aren't shown in Pomeroy's list yet, I guess because those opponents won't be known until after we play Dayton (then whoever we play on day 2).

 

There are also 10 W's and 18 L's on his list for us but yet he projects 12-16 so I presume he assumes we'll flip a couple of the L's on the list into wins potentially more L's get flipped too but perhaps a W or two will flip as well.  Not sure why he doesn't factor in the two unknown Anaheim opponents, maybe his algorithm can't account for that.  At any event, it is what it is right now.

Edited November 11, 2016 by 49r

[Dead Dog Alley]

 

 

4 hours ago, 49r said:

 

The second and third games in Anaheim aren't shown in Pomeroy's list yet, I guess because those opponents won't be known until after we play Dayton (then whoever we play on day 2).

 

There are also 10 W's and 18 L's on his list for us but yet he projects 12-16 so I presume he assumes we'll flip a couple of the L's on the list into wins potentially more L's get flipped too but perhaps a W or two will flip as well.  Not sure why he doesn't factor in the two unknown Anaheim opponents, maybe his algorithm can't account for that.  At any event, it is what it is right now.

 

He assigns a probability of winning to each game, and the predicted record is based on those joint probabilities. To illustrate using an extreme example, if a team happened to have a 49% chance of winning each and every game, the game by game prediction would be 0-30 but the season prediction would be more like 14-16. (Or something like that, Distribution Theory was not a class I got an A in. Not that that would have meant anything, I did get an A in Nonlinear Partial Differential Equations and understood absolutely nothing about it.)

[Chuck Taylor]

Watson       13

Webster      12

Roby            8

Gill                8

McVeigh       7

Jacobson     7

Morrow         6

Tschminga    5

Horne           3

Taylor           2

Fuller            2

I think Watson makes a jump, Tai improves slightly in scoring. Double digits for Roby is tough to predict. I like him, but for comparison's sake, Shavon averaged 8 ppg as a freshman while playing 28 minutes a game. Can't see that Roby gets that many minutes coming off the hip stress issues and the depth on the roster. 

 

I'm still interested to see our rotation, how we play Roby/McVeigh/Jacobson/Horne/Morrow. I think any one of them could average double digits if given 25-30 minutes at the 4. But at least a couple will be playing a lot of minutes at either the 3 or the 5, where defensive issues and foul trouble will cost them minutes. And playing two positions will limit offensive effectiveness of a young player, imo. 

 

[NoladrianSephier]

I'm surprised to see that no one has predicted more scoring out of Gill. From what I saw in the exhibition, I think he will be a volume scorer. Against higher quality opponents I believe he will be one of the first people the team goes to at the end of the shot clock. I think that throughout the year Gill will have one of the most consistent quantity of shots per game because of his explosiveness, so his scoring average will be dependent on his efficiency. 

 

I'm really looking forward to Sunday to see how our rotation looks. A lot could change depending on how much Miles puts Taylor on the floor, but any way it shakes out I love the talent on this team.

[MandRHusker]

44 minutes ago, NoladrianSephier said:

I'm surprised to see that no one has predicted more scoring out of Gill. From what I saw in the exhibition, I think he will be a volume scorer. Against higher quality opponents I believe he will be one of the first people the team goes to at the end of the shot clock. I think that throughout the year Gill will have one of the most consistent quantity of shots per game because of his explosiveness, so his scoring average will be dependent on his efficiency. 

 

I'm really looking forward to Sunday to see how our rotation looks. A lot could change depending on how much Miles puts Taylor on the floor, but any way it shakes out I love the talent on this team.

I agree. When AG is fully back up to speed from sitting out a couple months he will be a real scoring threat. I'm not sure if he, Glynn or Roby will be the go to at the end of the shot clock, but it will be one of those three. Miles mentioned Tai as one of the best options for the end of the shot clock but I'm not sure he truly has the skillset necessary.

[hhcmatt]

32 minutes ago, MandRHusker said:

Miles mentioned Tai as one of the best options for the end of the shot clock but I'm not sure he truly has the skillset necessary.

 

Crunch time decision making has thus far not proven to be a strength for him

[Huskerpapa]

4 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

Watson       13

Webster      12

Roby            8

Gill                8

McVeigh       7

Jacobson     7

Morrow         6

Tschminga    5

Horne           3

Taylor           2

Fuller            2

I think Watson makes a jump, Tai improves slightly in scoring. Double digits for Roby is tough to predict. I like him, but for comparison's sake, Shavon averaged 8 ppg as a freshman while playing 28 minutes a game. Can't see that Roby gets that many minutes coming off the hip stress issues and the depth on the roster. 

 

I'm still interested to see our rotation, how we play Roby/McVeigh/Jacobson/Horne/Morrow. I think any one of them could average double digits if given 25-30 minutes at the 4. But at least a couple will be playing a lot of minutes at either the 3 or the 5, where defensive issues and foul trouble will cost them minutes. And playing two positions will limit offensive effectiveness of a young player, imo. 

 

Based upon his HS body of work along with what I saw in the scrimmage and exhibition, I am not convinced that Glynn will have a higher scoring average.  Glynn will score when the team needs him to score.  He seems to be very comfortable distributing the ball to others.  But when the need is there, he will be a timely scorer.  So personally, I see Glynn's assist rate rising, but his scoring...I am not quite sure.

 

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by huskercwg

[Chuck Taylor]

1 hour ago, huskercwg said:

Based upon his HS body of work along with what I saw in the scrimmage and exhibition, I am not convinced that Glynn will have a higher scoring average.  Glynn will score when the team needs him to score.  He seems to be very comfortable distributing the ball to others.  But when the need is there, he will be a timely scorer.  So personally, I see Glynn's assist rate rising, but his scoring...I am not quite sure.

 

 

You're probably right, if Gill can be our first or second scorer. Guess I'm not convinced, though. I think Glynn can deliver points when things break down, and he's going to have the ball in his hands a lot. I see him bailing us out of bad possessions when the freshmen are lost on the floor. If the offense runs smoothly, then we probably don't need him to score much with all the options available. And he'll likely be either first or second in minutes played.

[hhcmatt]

2 hours ago, huskercwg said:

Based upon his HS body of work along with what I saw in the scrimmage and exhibition, I am not convinced that Glynn will have a higher scoring average.

 

His scoring average last year was 8.6 in 24.3 minutes in a season where his eFG% was a subpar 42%

If he plays approximately 29-30 MPG and bumps his eFG% to 46% (Petteway level) he's looking at 11.3 points for game without taking more shots than he did last year when he was the #3 option to a couple of guys who took a ton of shots.  I think there are enough shots per 40 minutes to distribute from the Shields/White era to not have to dip into Watson's.

[Huskerpapa]

I hope that Glynn will be in the 15 ppg and 8 assist range.  That would make me pretty happy.  But I really do think he will be a pass first PG this year. 

[Norm Peterson]

If the six newcomers took on the six vets in a series of scrimmages (5 on 5 with one sub, obviously) I wonder how close it would be.

 

The starters for the exhibition included a senior and 4 sophs, all vets; the next 5 guys off the bench that game were 2 juniors and 3 frosh, all newcomers.  The vets have the edge in experience but not by a lot.

 

Vets backcourt would be 6'0" soph PG and 6'4" sr SG; newcomers would field a 6'5" jr PG and a 6'3" jr SG in the backcourt.

 

The front line for the vets would be all sophs at 6'8", 6'7" and 6'9".  The front line for the newcomers would be all frosh at 6'7", 6'8" and 6'11".

 

Keep in mind, those frontline frosh include two kids who've had some buzz that they might enter the starting lineup.  If they ran it back 10 times, I wonder how close the games would be.

[Chuck Taylor]

On 11/11/2016 at 0:58 PM, huskercwg said:

Based upon his HS body of work along with what I saw in the scrimmage and exhibition, I am not convinced that Glynn will have a higher scoring average.  Glynn will score when the team needs him to score.  He seems to be very comfortable distributing the ball to others.  But when the need is there, he will be a timely scorer.  So personally, I see Glynn's assist rate rising, but his scoring...I am not quite sure.

 

 

I'm going to claim Round 1 in the debate. 

[Huskerpapa]

2 hours ago, Chuck Taylor said:

I'm going to claim Round 1 in the debate. 

No real debate per se.  I believe we needed Glynn to score last night, and boy, did he.  But notice in the second half.  He did not force anything.  Granted he had a bad headache.  Yet in the 2nd half, he wasn't looking to score while others took to the rim.  I agree 100% that Glynn may be our best scorer.  But I also believe he enjoys setting the table for others.  I love his game. 

[hhcmatt]

6 hours ago, huskercwg said:

No real debate per se.  I believe we needed Glynn to score last night, and boy, did he.  But notice in the second half.  He did not force anything.  Granted he had a bad headache.  Yet in the 2nd half, he wasn't looking to score while others took to the rim.  I agree 100% that Glynn may be our best scorer.  But I also believe he enjoys setting the table for others.  I love his game. 

 

He's unselfish enough that when teams try to take away his scoring that he can and will find teammates 

[PimpMario]

I need way more data points. Watson is clearly our most complete player.

[Huskerpapa]

Another topic some time back, but piggybacked on this topic is the distribution of playing time.  We currently have a ten man rotation and that doesn't include Nick who is recovering from injury.  Coach Miles has been feeling out his rotation over the past two games, the exhibition and the secret scrimmage.  The starting five seems set, but how minutes will they get per game?  The remaining six players (including Nick) will find minutes based upon many factors.  Of the eleven, will anyone sit the entire game(s)?

 

I do not believe anything is set as of today.  My best guess going into Saturday and next week looks something like this:

Player   Position       Minutes (200+/-)

Tai         1,2,3               25

Glynn     1                     25

Jack        3,4                 25

MJ          4,5                 25

Ed          4,5                  25

Zay         2,3,4              20

Anton      2                    15

Evan       1                    15

Jordy       5                    15

Jeriah      3                    10

 

Pick me apart, because quite frankly, this is nothing more than a guess and by golly.

Edited November 16, 2016 by huskercwg

[hhcmatt]

Here is the how the minutes were broken up vs Sacramento St

		Name	Min	ORtg	%Ps	Pts	2PM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OR	DR	A	TO	Blk	Stl	PF
6-8 215 So	10	Jack McVeigh	32	145	14	14	2-3	3-5	1-2	2	5	0	1	0	0	0
6-4 195 Sr	0	Tai Webster	31	134	22	20	6-9	1-3	5-6	0	5	1	1	0	0	1
6-0 174 So	5	Glynn Watson MVP	30	167	25	23	7-11	2-3	3-3	0	5	6	0	0	3	2
6-7 234 So	30	Ed Morrow	27	112	27	15	7-13	0-0	1-1	3	3	1	2	1	0	3
6-9 239 So	12	Michael Jacobson	24	94	11	2	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	4	3	2	2	0	1
6-3 195 Jr	1	Anton Gill	16	16	13	0	0-4	0-0	0-0	1	2	0	1	0	1	4
6-7 222 Fr	2	Jeriah Horne	11	81	14	2	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	3	1	1	0	0	1
6-8 214 Fr	15	Isaiah Roby	10	36	29	2	0-2	0-0	2-2	0	1	0	3	0	0	2
6-11 275 Fr	32	Jordy Tshimanga	10	35	30	0	0-7	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
6-5 206 Jr	11	Evan Taylor	9			5	1-1	0-0	3-4	0	1	1	0	0	0	1
		Team								1	1		0
		TOTAL	200			83 1.15	25-54 .463	6-11 .545	15-18 .833	12 .343	31 .838	13 .419	11 .153	3 .094	5 .069	17

The closer the game the more I think you'll see those starters play.

 

[49r]

Here's some more KenPom goodness:

 

Player stats/rankings include games against D-I competition through Wednesday, November 16
(2180 players eligible for national rank, except 1263 in eFG%, TS%, and FTRate.)

		Ht	Wt	Yr	G	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FTM-FTA	Pct	2PM-2PA	Pct	3PM-3PA	Pct
	Go-to guys (>28% of possessions used)
32	Jordy Tshimanga	6-11	275	Fr	1	25.0	34.7	29.7	43.1	0.0	0.0	34.3	10.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.6	8.0	2.4	0.0	0-0	.000	0-7	.000	0-0	.000
15	Isaiah Roby	6-8	214	Fr	1	25.0	35.5	28.7	12.3	0.0	33.9	0.0	10.8	0.0	58.5	0.0	0.0	8.0	6.8	100.0	2-2	.999	0-2	.000	0-0	.000
	Major Contributors (24-28% of possessions used)
5	Glynn Watson National Rank	6-0	174	So	1	75.0	167.4 46	24.6 482	28.7 308	71.4 142	74.5 116	0.0	18.0	42.1 47	0.0 1	0.0	5.6 85	2.7	4.3	21.4	3-3	.999 114	7-11	.636 371	2-3	.667 55
30	Ed Morrow National Rank	6-7	234	So	1	67.5	111.6	26.7 324	29.6 246	53.9	55.7	12.7 211	12.0	7.2	15.5	4.6 308	0.0	4.4	3.0	7.7	1-1	.999	7-13	.538	0-0	.000
	Significant Contributors (20-24% of possessions used)
0	Tai Webster National Rank	6-4	195	Sr	1	77.5 399	134.5 282	22.5	23.8	62.5 293	67.3 242	0.0	17.4	5.9	8.0 400	0.0	0.0	1.3 194	6.2 373	50.0 403	5-6	.833 276	6-9	.667 274	1-3	.333
	Role Players (16-20% of possessions used)
11	Evan Taylor	6-5	206	Jr	1	22.5	174.2	17.0	6.8	100.0	86.2	0.0	12.0	16.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.4	11.5	400.0	3-4	.750	1-1	.999	0-0	.000
	Limited roles (12-16% of possessions used)
10	Jack McVeigh National Rank	6-8	215	So	1	80.0 314	145.1 157	14.0	15.4	81.2 63	78.2 77	7.1	16.9	0.0	12.5	0.0	0.0	0.0 1	2.8	25.0	1-2	.500	2-3	.667 323	3-5	.600 97
1	Anton Gill National Rank	6-3	195	Jr	1	40.0	16.0	13.4	15.4	0.0	0.0	7.1	13.5	0.0	26.2	0.0	3.5 337	10.0	1.4	0.0	0-0	.000	0-4	.000	0-0	.000
2	Jeriah Horne	6-7	222	Fr	1	27.5	80.8	13.7	11.2	50.0	50.0	0.0	29.5	13.3	37.0	0.0	0.0	3.6	1.4	0.0	0-0	.000	1-2	.500	0-0	.000
	Nearly invisible (<12% of possessions used)
12	Michael Jacobson National Rank	6-9	239	So	1	60.0	93.9	11.1	5.1	50.0	50.0	9.5 401	18.0	17.1	42.0	10.4 85	0.0	1.7 283	1.3	0.0	0-0	.000	1-2	.500	0-0	.000

[49r]

Of course some of it is a little out of whack here due to there only being one game that counts...but it's just a small example of just how useful a KenPom subscription is.  I encourage anyone who's on the fence about subscribing to go ahead and take the plunge.  I did this year and man am I loving it.

[hhcmatt]

A supplementary tool I use is Hoop-Math.com.  This fills in a couple of gaps for me that KenPom doesn't cover:

• The split between shots in the paint vs jumpers
• The assisted rate on a shot (a lower number tends to point out a guy who either can get his own shot)

Name	FGA	TS%	eFG%	% shots at rim	FG% at rim	%assisted at rim	% shots 2pt J	FG% 2pt Jumpers	%assisted 2pt J	%of shots 3pt	3FG%	%assisted 3s	FTA/FGA	FT%
Watson Jr., Glynn	14	0.746	71.4%	35.7%	80.0%	25.0%	42.9%	50.0%	0.0%	21.4%	66.7%	50.0%	21.4%	100.0%
Morrow Jr., Ed	13	0.557	53.8%	53.8%	71.4%	80.0%	46.2%	33.3%	100.0%	0.0%	---	---	7.7%	100.0%
Webster, Tai	12	0.673	62.5%	41.7%	80.0%	0.0%	33.3%	50.0%	0.0%	25.0%	33.3%	100.0%	50.0%	83.3%
McVeigh, Jack	8	0.782	81.2%	0.0%	---	---	37.5%	66.7%	0.0%	62.5%	60.0%	100.0%	25.0%	50.0%
Tshimanga, Jordy	7	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	---	---	100.0%	0.0%	---	0.0%	---	---	0.0%	---
Gill, Anton	4	0.000	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	---	75.0%	0.0%	---	0.0%	---	---	0.0%	---
Roby, Isaiah	2	0.339	0.0%	0.0%	---	---	100.0%	0.0%	---	0.0%	---	---	100.0%	100.0%
Horne, Jeriah	2	0.500	50.0%	0.0%	---	---	100.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	---	---	0.0%	---
Jacobson, Michael	2	0.500	50.0%	0.0%	---	---	100.0%	50.0%	100.0%	0.0%	---	---	0.0%	---
Taylor, Evan	1	0.862	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	---	---	0.0%	---	---	400.0%	75.0%
Total	65	0.564	52.3%	29.2%	73.7%	35.7%	53.8%	31.4%	27.3%	16.9%	54.5%	83.3%	27.7%	83.3%

[arliepro]

Has anyone seen PER ratings for our players? If so, where?

Sent from my XT1528 using Tapatalk

[Huskerpapa]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics. Mark Twain
 

[big red22]

On 11/10/2016 at 9:56 AM, big red22 said:

I. Roby              13 pts   4.6 reb   3 ass   1.2 blk 1 st

T. Webster        12 pts   3.2 reb   3 ass 1 st

G. Watson         10 pts    2 reb   6 ass  2 st

A. Gill                8.3 pts   2 reb   2 ass 2 st

M. Jacobson     8.2 pts   5.4 reb   0.8 bl

J. McVeigh        7 pts    2.8 reb

E. Morrow         5.8 pts   7 reb   1 bl

J. Tshimanga    4.7 pts   3 reb   2 bl

E. Taylor           2 pts   2 reb

J. Horne           2 pts   1 reb

N. Fuller           0.8 pts    1 reb

M. Laws           0.2 pts

TOTALS         74 points  34 rebs  14 ass 6 st 5 blks 

 

After watching the 1st 2 games, I'm not feeling too strong on my predictions 

 

Bad

 

Roby - He may average 13 points a game over the course of a few games, but not the season.  I think his season average is going to be closer to 7 or 8 pts a game.

Gill - *I hope I am wrong when saying this* He will be down there with Jordy for pts, and will not see a lot of playing time if his play doesn't pick up

 

Good

 

Watson - I think he may average more than 14 a game

Morrow - May just have him switch spots with Gill for pts, but keep the rebounds the same

 

[Huskerpapa]

4 hours ago, big red22 said:

After watching the 1st 2 games, I'm not feeling too strong on my predictions 

 

Bad

 

Roby - He may average 13 points a game over the course of a few games, but not the season.  I think his season average is going to be closer to 7 or 8 pts a game.

Gill - *I hope I am wrong when saying this* He will be down there with Jordy for pts, and will not see a lot of playing time if his play doesn't pick up

 

Good

 

Watson - I think he may average more than 14 a game

Morrow - May just have him switch spots with Gill for pts, but keep the rebounds the same

 

I wouldn't give up on Anton quite yet.  We sorta have to give the kid a break.  He has been away from competitive basketball for a year, plus he is coming off of a knee procedure.  It may take until the start of the Big Ten season for his rust to be knocked off.  Same for the freshmen.  They are learning to play big boy basketball.  Soon they will be less robotic and their talent will show through. 

[hhcmatt]

I think there is a high scoring guard in Gill that will emerge. I'm actually more concerned about the times I've seen guys just blow by him on defense.