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A Different Perspective: The Sky is not Falling


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There were enough hints from Andrew ever since the turning-pro-without-an-agent announcement that this latest news can't really be considered much of a surprise.  Disappointment, yes; surprise, no.
 
I'm not going to bash the kid.  I'm not going to bash Miles.  I'm not going to bash Lanigan.  Lanigan, specifically, brought some info to the board he turned out being right about and he isn't doing an endzonce dance about it.  In fact, probably doing less of a "see, I told you so" than I would have if it had been me.
 
Having said all of that, let me get to my point.  Aside from the hints Andrew has left, this news is not surprising for me.  Refer back to my thread on "trying to talk myself out of" being optimistic.  Chuck Taylor posed a number of questions in that thread that I attempted to answer (posted below).  One of those questions related to whether Andrew White would get the same quality of shots without Shavon Shields being in the mix.
 
My answer was basically that he'd probably get better shots, but maybe not as many because we have a lot of talented shooters on this roster.  As I was formulating that answer, it occurred to me that this may be a tough roster for Andrew to showcase himself in.  If his hope is to be the centerpiece of a roster that will help him draw the attention of NBA scouts, he might have a tough time doing it on a team that features as many other guys who can do what Andrew does.
 
If Jack McVeigh can fill in nicely for Shavon Shields when Shavon goes down with a concussion, I would think Jack would be even better able to fill in for Andrew.
 
The reality is that Andrew probably wasn't going to be able to be the substantial focus of an offense that has other quality players on it that can do what he does best.  And as I was formulating the response quoted below, and as I thought about it further afterward, it occurred to me that it might not make sense, under the circumstances, for Andrew to stay.  Not if he wants to showcase his skills for the scouts to see.  Because I think Chuck Taylor had a point about Andrew's production declining.  Except not because of a lack of Shavon but rather based on the fact we'll have more shooters to take his shots.
 
I am not saying we're better off without Andrew; I am saying this is a blow I think we can absorb.
 
 

 

My questions:
1. Shavon is a big loss. Does AWIII still get the shots he did last year if he's the main scoring threat?
2. Don't underestimate the value of a senior point guard. Benny was a strength last year. We know Glynn can score, but can he defend consistently and more importantly run the team?
3. We have a log jam of players at 4. Will one emerge, or will it be a revolving door?
4. Is Jordy really ready?
 
I'm optimistic, but these are the things we don't know yet.

 
1.  I think so.  Maybe even better shots because we'll have more perimeter weapons than we had last year where, basically, Andrew White was the only real threat from deep.  I don't think it'll mean he shoots it that much less.  Probably marginally fewer but I'm thinking he'll have better looks because opposing defenses won't be able to key on him.  We've traded Benny in exchange for Anton Gill.  What I saw of Gill is that he's a guy who will shoot with a hand in his face and can elevate in tight spaces to get a shot off.  I'm expecting Tai to come back as more of the guy he was to finish the season and I anticipate marginal improvements from others as well.  So, when defenses have other players they have to account for, I expect that means each of them will have marginally better looks if possibly fewer of them.
 
2.  I think Glynn is a huge talent.  I think he'll be at least adequate defensively and will be capable at running the show.  But we have a 3-headed monster at the point, which includes Gill and Webster.  I would confidently suggest that Tai as a senior will be more impactful running the offense than Benny was as a senior.
 
3.  Yet to be seen.  One will get starter's minutes and the others will probably contribute.
 
4.  Yet to be seen.  But keep in mind he's a freshman and so judge his abilities based on that.  As freshmen go, he will have a huge advantage in size and length.  Plus he's pretty mobile and has nice, soft hands and good touch in close.  I think he'll be a very good freshman center.  Potentially capable of locking down the starting job and solid enough that he won't be a weak link.

 

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Except I have trouble seeing how White presumably going to a contender with better players than ours would allow himself to "get more shots" or "be the centerpiece".   Why would he think going to a better team would allow him to "showcase his skills for the scouts to see"?  I accept the conclusion that the sky isn't falling due to the transfer, but I'm not buying the proposition set forth that our amazing talent on hand make for a sensible reason for an AW III transfer. 

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Except I have trouble seeing how White presumably going to a contender with better players than ours would allow himself to "get more shots" or "be the centerpiece".   Why would he think going to a better team would allow him to "showcase his skills for the scouts to see"?  I accept the conclusion that the sky isn't falling due to the transfer, but I'm not buying the proposition set forth that our amazing talent on hand make for a sensible reason for an AW III transfer. 

 

I don't know where he's going.  I'm not saying his move at this point is a better move because I don't know where he's planning on ending up.  Maybe there's a team out there that really lacks shooters but has all the other pieces in place.  I don't know.  But, if he wants to burnish his NBA resume, it might be tough to do it here on a team where his number of attempts was probably going to go down.  And possibly by a lot.

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Except I have trouble seeing how White presumably going to a contender with better players than ours would allow himself to "get more shots" or "be the centerpiece".   Why would he think going to a better team would allow him to "showcase his skills for the scouts to see"?  I accept the conclusion that the sky isn't falling due to the transfer, but I'm not buying the proposition set forth that our amazing talent on hand make for a sensible reason for an AW III transfer. 

 

I don't know where he's going.  I'm not saying his move at this point is a better move because I don't know where he's planning on ending up.  Maybe there's a team out there that really lacks shooters but has all the other pieces in place.  I don't know.  But, if he wants to burnish his NBA resume, it might be tough to do it here on a team where his number of attempts was probably going to go down.  And possibly by a lot.

 

 

They (scouts) already know he can shoot.  It's the rest of his game that needs work.  So shot attempts alone would be an absurd reason to transfer.  And I'm not convinced they would have gone down that much in any event.  

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We have brought in some mercenaries with some success, but overall it is going to be the guys that come in as Freshman and stay that build the program.  I think the mercenary aided NCAA tournament appearance contributed to the last two recruiting classes and I like the base we have built.  Watson and Roby are the two primary difference makers that get us the tournament win to build off in the next 1-3 years. 

 

You always take a few mercenaries, especially when they bring the talent and Power 5 experience but it will be the 4 star talent that is completely N as freshmen that push us over the top.

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We have brought in some mercenaries with some success, but overall it is going to be the guys that come in as Freshman and stay that build the program. I think the mercenary aided NCAA tournament appearance contributed to the last two recruiting classes and I like the base we have built. Watson and Roby are the two primary difference makers that get us the tournament win to build off in the next 1-3 years.

You always take a few mercenaries, especially when they bring the talent and Power 5 experience but it will be the 4 star talent that is completely N as freshmen that push us over the top.

Roby hasn't played a minute of D-1 ball yet. I think we are doing him a major disservice if people are expecting him to come in and be all world. He is going to have his freshman struggles just like last years freshman went thru. Unfortunately this staff is going to have to ask a lot of him because we are very thin at the 2/3. The minutes will help him down the road...assuming he stays at Nebraska which based on the past 4 years is a question mark...but this team is going to go thru some ugly spells again next year. If the writing was on the wall one would think Miles was doing some 5th year transfer recruiting of his own but there is no evidence of that. If he wasn't doing so, he better be on the phones now. We need another body for minutes.

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I understand and agree with everything you said, but Roby is very, very talented and I think people will realize that quickly.

We have brought in some mercenaries with some success, but overall it is going to be the guys that come in as Freshman and stay that build the program. I think the mercenary aided NCAA tournament appearance contributed to the last two recruiting classes and I like the base we have built. Watson and Roby are the two primary difference makers that get us the tournament win to build off in the next 1-3 years.

You always take a few mercenaries, especially when they bring the talent and Power 5 experience but it will be the 4 star talent that is completely N as freshmen that push us over the top.

Roby hasn't played a minute of D-1 ball yet. I think we are doing him a major disservice if people are expecting him to come in and be all world. He is going to have his freshman struggles just like last years freshman went thru. Unfortunately this staff is going to have to ask a lot of him because we are very thin at the 2/3. The minutes will help him down the road...assuming he stays at Nebraska which based on the past 4 years is a question mark...but this team is going to go thru some ugly spells again next year. If the writing was on the wall one would think Miles was doing some 5th year transfer recruiting of his own but there is no evidence of that. If he wasn't doing so, he better be on the phones now. We need another body for minutes.

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If things go our way (mainly injuries), I could see us being a middle tier NIT team.

I would say that would be a pretty good accomplishment with how our roster looks right now. We went 16-18 last year and aren't returning two 15+PPG players. The sophomore class is going to have to take a major leap and the freshman are going to have to be pretty damn good for us to make the nit next year.

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I agree with Norm a bit on this. Andrew was likely going to get equal to or less shots in this years offense than last years offense. Andrew was going to probably play that 3 and sometimes 4 spot. The team wasn't going to look for Andrew to put it on the floor, Gill would fill that role. Andrew was needed to be. Spot of shooter or coming off a screen to shoot jumpers at the elbow. Andrew isn't and wasn't going to be Terran, and that's what the NBA likely said he needed to be.

That in mind, I don't think a "better" team wants Andrew to be that type of player.

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Except I have trouble seeing how White presumably going to a contender with better players than ours would allow himself to "get more shots" or "be the centerpiece".   Why would he think going to a better team would allow him to "showcase his skills for the scouts to see"?  I accept the conclusion that the sky isn't falling due to the transfer, but I'm not buying the proposition set forth that our amazing talent on hand make for a sensible reason for an AW III transfer. 

 

I don't know where he's going.  I'm not saying his move at this point is a better move because I don't know where he's planning on ending up.  Maybe there's a team out there that really lacks shooters but has all the other pieces in place.  I don't know.  But, if he wants to burnish his NBA resume, it might be tough to do it here on a team where his number of attempts was probably going to go down.  And possibly by a lot.

 

 

They (scouts) already know he can shoot.  It's the rest of his game that needs work.  So shot attempts alone would be an absurd reason to transfer.  And I'm not convinced they would have gone down that much in any event.  

 

I agree.  I don't think this move makes a lot of sense for him because I don't think he'll find a better situation at a "stronger" program.  I think he was grasping for straws in leaving, frankly. 

 

But, what I saw when I scanned the roster is that I think his attempts go down ever so slightly next season.  Maybe not by a lot, but they still probably go down.  Which is NOT what he wants to see.  We have at least two other guys at his spot who are or will be capable players.

 

So, when he and his advisors are doing the math in their heads, they probably come out with something under 16 ppg by staying at Nebraska.  Had he stayed, he might not have been the best player on the team.  That certainly wouldn't help his NBA aspirations.  So, he's going to take his chances with whatever's behind door #3.

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We have brought in some mercenaries with some success, but overall it is going to be the guys that come in as Freshman and stay that build the program. I think the mercenary aided NCAA tournament appearance contributed to the last two recruiting classes and I like the base we have built. Watson and Roby are the two primary difference makers that get us the tournament win to build off in the next 1-3 years.

You always take a few mercenaries, especially when they bring the talent and Power 5 experience but it will be the 4 star talent that is completely N as freshmen that push us over the top.

Roby hasn't played a minute of D-1 ball yet. I think we are doing him a major disservice if people are expecting him to come in and be all world. He is going to have his freshman struggles just like last years freshman went thru. Unfortunately this staff is going to have to ask a lot of him because we are very thin at the 2/3. The minutes will help him down the road...assuming he stays at Nebraska which based on the past 4 years is a question mark...but this team is going to go thru some ugly spells again next year. If the writing was on the wall one would think Miles was doing some 5th year transfer recruiting of his own but there is no evidence of that. If he wasn't doing so, he better be on the phones now. We need another body for minutes.

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This is why I suggested a 1-3 year time frame and didn't initially mention Jordy who I think will need some time.  1 assumes an immediate impact and sophomores making big jumps.  3 gives plenty of development time and probably the maximum amount time before people start clamoring for a change.  

 

As far as the comment about it being a question mark about whether he stays all 4 years, I still think it is humorous that people bash Nebraska for reflecting what is taking place in the rest of college basketball.

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I actually think white would have gotten a ton of shots. he would have been the best shooter by far on our team at 41% from 3.

 

i'm not sure there's anyone else on the roster that can shoot. webster 35%, watson 26%, mcveigh 34%, jacobson 18%, morrow 0%.

Gill at UL 35%

 

i don't think roby and horne are particularly known for shooting either.

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As exciting as it is to land a top 100 transfer, maybe this is the writing on the wall as to why we cant start a program with them instead of the usual recruiting. We weren't these players' first choice for school so how can we expect them to be loyal to us and not stab us in the back if they think they can find a better situation elsewhere??

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Roby has the sort of IQ, skillset, athleticism, and size needed to contribute at the D1 level immediately.  McVeigh was a 5pt, 3rb true freshman.  I think Roby can be a 7pt, 4rb, 3ast type of player right away.  There are plenty of games where that would be a much more useful stat line than AWIII put up on an off night.  Zay's skill set will make him a more consistently reliable presence.  

 

From what I've heard, Roby hasn't been messing around at all, and he was going to get some minutes at the three whether or not AWIII stayed.  It's very possible that AWIII was going to get less minutes this year in addition to less shots.     

 

We already know what Gill was doing to people in practice last year.  He and Glynn are going to be impossible to guard without help.  The 3 is going to have to be more of an all-around player who spots up, cuts, and assists--a glue guy.  Roby is the dream glue guy.  

 

Also, don't sleep on Horne.  I've heard he's going to start the season chiseled up and in shape.  He's a very exciting prospect at the 4, particularly on the offensive end.  He's extremely capable of scoring one on one.  I think that's the biggest difference between last year's roster and this year's... we can field a lineup of players who specialize in creating their own shot.  

 

1.  Glynn--not sure anyone in the country can shut him down 1on1.  

2.  Gill--he has freakshow hops, very good handles, and a nice looking release.  He can get his shot when he wants it.  

3.  Roby--watch this kid's tape if you want to see phenomenal athleticism and fundamentals at 6'8".  He'll be a matchup problem for most teams we play at the 3 or 4 spot.  He has post skills and excellent handles/passing ability for his size.  

4.  Horne--again, watch the tape.  His footwork, shooting, wide body, and ball-handling make him a very difficult player to guard. 

5.  Jordy--size, size, size... he has enough post skills to be a very tough guard inside.  

 

Compare this to last year's one on one capabilities:

 

1.  Glynn--same guy, not as good as this year's Glynn.

2.  Tai--showed glimpses of one-on-one ability and is learning to get to the rim at will.  From all accounts, Gill's ability in this area is better, plus we have Tai back, which is awesome.  

3.  AWIII--showed extremely limited ability to score one on one, but deadly as a spot up shooter with a quick release.  

4.  Shavon--great one on one scorer, but only as a facing up penetrator and in transition.  Not an iso guy in the post.  

5.  Jacobson--showed glimpses of being a decent scorer... at the 4.  

 

--

 

I think the skillset of next year's team will lead them to a lot more high percentage looks.  We'll get a lot of finishes around the basket, and I think we'll be significantly better in transition.  With White, we really just lose a deadly spot up shooter who had zero passing ability.  I can guarantee Zay will do better than .6 assists per 30 minutes at the 3.

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Shooting always is the focus of the fan, but rebounding will be the biggest thing missing by losing AW III. McVeigh won't touch AW III in defense and rebounding.

I don't necessarily think you are replacing White as last years 4 with Jack as this years 4. I think Morrow/Jacobsen can match White's D and rebounding.

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Shooting always is the focus of the fan, but rebounding will be the biggest thing missing by losing AW III. McVeigh won't touch AW III in defense and rebounding.

I don't necessarily think you are replacing White as last years 4 with Jack as this years 4. I think Morrow/Jacobsen can match White's D and rebounding.

 

 

i was thinking morrow and jacobsen matching shavon more than white.  white will be missed, but honestly i think gains on rebounding and interior D will counterbalance losing shooting.  and even then, i think gill vs benny needs to be pointed out every time that people think we're losing two big guns makes our team worse.

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Shooting always is the focus of the fan, but rebounding will be the biggest thing missing by losing AW III. McVeigh won't touch AW III in defense and rebounding.

I don't necessarily think you are replacing White as last years 4 with Jack as this years 4. I think Morrow/Jacobsen can match White's D and rebounding.

i was thinking morrow and jacobsen matching shavon more than white. white will be missed, but honestly i think gains on rebounding and interior D will counterbalance losing shooting. and even then, i think gill vs benny needs to be pointed out every time that people think we're losing two big guns makes our team worse.

What we get out of Gill remains to be seen but as of now it would appear we have zero personnel that is going to strike fear into the opposing team from deep. That once again is going to make this team very easy to defend. Another year of watching other teams pack it and watching us struggle to counter.

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Shooting always is the focus of the fan, but rebounding will be the biggest thing missing by losing AW III. McVeigh won't touch AW III in defense and rebounding.

I don't necessarily think you are replacing White as last years 4 with Jack as this years 4. I think Morrow/Jacobsen can match White's D and rebounding.

i was thinking morrow and jacobsen matching shavon more than white. white will be missed, but honestly i think gains on rebounding and interior D will counterbalance losing shooting. and even then, i think gill vs benny needs to be pointed out every time that people think we're losing two big guns makes our team worse.

What we get out of Gill remains to be seen but as of now it would appear we have zero personnel that is going to strike fear into the opposing team from deep. That once again is going to make this team very easy to defend. Another year of watching other teams pack it and watching us struggle to counter.

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So let me get this straight.  last year we had shavon and white... .364 and .410 respectively from deep.  watson wasnt good (freshman).  mcveigh was about .340.  tai was .350.

 

ok, so given that... is it really that much of a stretch to think that gill, tai and mcveigh could hit at a .370 pace between them?  could watson jump up to around .340?  i'm still not seeing how losing benny does anything but help (.316 from 3 last year).  how much different overall is that from last year when you take into account the fact that we'll actually have an interior this year?

 

seriously... i'm not saying losing white doesn't hurt -- of course it does.  but when you compare to last year..  it's a different equation just having jordy around.  if our guards put in the work this offseason (and they have from what i've heard) then the biggest loss is who we want shooting in the last 2 minutes.  some yes, but huge?

 

it's one thing to worry about having everyone sag down and defend the interior when you don't have an interior -- and let's be honest, we haven't had an inside game at nebraska since marik and outside of him it's been 20 years.  it's quite another when you've got the bodies to bang people around a bit and a few guys who can shoot average (not good, average).  losing white hurts, but it's not like we're going to drop from scoring 72 down to doc sadler levels just because of him.

 

edit: and i'll reiterate.  rebounding makes up for a lot, and having an interior means more shots for those shooters.  i'll take two shots at .370 over 1 shot at .410 every day of the week, and i can't count the number of one shot possessions we had last year.

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Shooting always is the focus of the fan, but rebounding will be the biggest thing missing by losing AW III. McVeigh won't touch AW III in defense and rebounding.

I don't necessarily think you are replacing White as last years 4 with Jack as this years 4. I think Morrow/Jacobsen can match White's D and rebounding.
i was thinking morrow and jacobsen matching shavon more than white. white will be missed, but honestly i think gains on rebounding and interior D will counterbalance losing shooting. and even then, i think gill vs benny needs to be pointed out every time that people think we're losing two big guns makes our team worse.
What we get out of Gill remains to be seen but as of now it would appear we have zero personnel that is going to strike fear into the opposing team from deep. That once again is going to make this team very easy to defend. Another year of watching other teams pack it and watching us struggle to counter.

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So let me get this straight. last year we had shavon and white... .364 and .410 respectively from deep. watson wasnt good (freshman). mcveigh was about .340. tai was .350.

ok, so given that... is it really that much of a stretch to think that gill, tai and mcveigh could hit at a .370 pace between them? could watson jump up to around .340? i'm still not seeing how losing benny does anything but help (.316 from 3 last year). how much different overall is that from last year when you take into account the fact that we'll actually have an interior this year?

seriously... i'm not saying losing white doesn't hurt -- of course it does. but when you compare to last year.. it's a different equation just having jordy around. if our guards put in the work this offseason (and they have from what i've heard) then the biggest loss is who we want shooting in the last 2 minutes. some yes, but huge?

it's one thing to worry about having everyone sag down and defend the interior when you don't have an interior -- and let's be honest, we haven't had an inside game at nebraska since marik and outside of him it's been 20 years. it's quite another when you've got the bodies to bang people around a bit and a few guys who can shoot average (not good, average). losing white hurts, but it's not like we're going to drop from scoring 72 down to doc sadler levels just because of him.

edit: and i'll reiterate. rebounding makes up for a lot, and having an interior means more shots for those shooters. i'll take two shots at .370 over 1 shot at .410 every day of the week, and i can't count the number of one shot possessions we had last year.

McVeigh is obviously going to get more minutes this year...but between him and Tai this year the both of them combined for making just over 1 three pointer per game...combined. So no,as it stands I don't think any team is going to be afraid to defend the three pointer. Perhaps Gill will be that guy...but it may be asking for a lot judging by his stats at UL. One hope is new blood in Lewis coming on board and hopefully changing things up.

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Huskerbaseball, you understand, of course, that this is college, not the NBA. 

 

What a guy did his freshman year is usually a lot less than what he ends up doing his sophomore year.

 

In the 4 games Shavon sat out with a concussion, Jack shot 11 of  23 from 3-point range.

 

That's almost 50% shooting from deep on nearly 6 attempts per game.

 

Do you think those numbers might make any team we face "afraid to defend the three pointer?"

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Shooting always is the focus of the fan, but rebounding will be the biggest thing missing by losing AW III. McVeigh won't touch AW III in defense and rebounding.

I don't necessarily think you are replacing White as last years 4 with Jack as this years 4. I think Morrow/Jacobsen can match White's D and rebounding.
i was thinking morrow and jacobsen matching shavon more than white. white will be missed, but honestly i think gains on rebounding and interior D will counterbalance losing shooting. and even then, i think gill vs benny needs to be pointed out every time that people think we're losing two big guns makes our team worse.
What we get out of Gill remains to be seen but as of now it would appear we have zero personnel that is going to strike fear into the opposing team from deep. That once again is going to make this team very easy to defend. Another year of watching other teams pack it and watching us struggle to counter.

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So let me get this straight. last year we had shavon and white... .364 and .410 respectively from deep. watson wasnt good (freshman). mcveigh was about .340. tai was .350.

ok, so given that... is it really that much of a stretch to think that gill, tai and mcveigh could hit at a .370 pace between them? could watson jump up to around .340? i'm still not seeing how losing benny does anything but help (.316 from 3 last year). how much different overall is that from last year when you take into account the fact that we'll actually have an interior this year?

seriously... i'm not saying losing white doesn't hurt -- of course it does. but when you compare to last year.. it's a different equation just having jordy around. if our guards put in the work this offseason (and they have from what i've heard) then the biggest loss is who we want shooting in the last 2 minutes. some yes, but huge?

it's one thing to worry about having everyone sag down and defend the interior when you don't have an interior -- and let's be honest, we haven't had an inside game at nebraska since marik and outside of him it's been 20 years. it's quite another when you've got the bodies to bang people around a bit and a few guys who can shoot average (not good, average). losing white hurts, but it's not like we're going to drop from scoring 72 down to doc sadler levels just because of him.

edit: and i'll reiterate. rebounding makes up for a lot, and having an interior means more shots for those shooters. i'll take two shots at .370 over 1 shot at .410 every day of the week, and i can't count the number of one shot possessions we had last year.

McVeigh is obviously going to get more minutes this year...but between him and Tai this year the both of them combined for making just over 1 three pointer per game...combined. So no,as it stands I don't think any team is going to be afraid to defend the three pointer. Perhaps Gill will be that guy...but it may be asking for a lot judging by his stats at UL. One hope is new blood in Lewis coming on board and hopefully changing things up.

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you're seriously not comparing a player and not expecting any improvement from year to year are you?  this isn't the nba.  people generally improve during college.

 

shavon shot about .310 from 3 as a sophomore.  white shot .320 from 3 as a sophomore.  last i checked, mcveigh was better than both at a younger age.

 

seriously, look deeper than "each shot one shot a game"

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